The confidence also is vital The economist and jurist Alexander Arauz stressed that the administration of Daniel Ortega will have to generate confidence in all the economic sectors of the country.       In order to obtain it, according to Arauz, Ortega it will have first to solve the institutional problem of lack of sinergias, and to reasignar of form is transparent the step exonerations, eliminating a high percentage of these. “It will have in addition that to dinamizar the sector of the foreign trade so that the country can sell more value added without neglecting the local primary goods; and it will have to define the parameters of a sustainable indebtedness, that lead of step to increase the participation of the investment with respect to the GIP”, emphasized. President Enrique Bolaños has affirmed that he lets to Ortega “the table served” with at least 1.500 million contracted and ready dollars to be disbursed, instead of debts since he has been in the crossing of previous governments.

Santa Sede: to fight the poverty       Pope Benedicto XVI exposed recently that “the improvement of some economic indices, the commitment in the fight against the drug traffic and the corruption, the different processes from integration, the efforts to improve the access to the education, to fight unemployment and to reduce inequalities in the distribution of the rents, are indices that are had to emphasize with satisfaction (in the world)”. “If these progresses consolidate - he considered will be able to contribute of determining way to overcome the poverty that afflicts to vast sectors of the population and to increase the stability institutional”, it referred. Making reference to the fact that in 11 countries of Latin America, between November of the 2005 and December of the 2006 they have taken place elections like in Chile, Colombia, Mexico, Brazil, Venezuela, Peru, Nicaragua, Costa Rica, Honduras, Bolivia and Ecuador. It emphasized that “the democracy is called to consider the aspirations of the set of the citizens, to promote the development in the respect of all the members of the society, according to the principles of solidarity, the subsidiariedad and justice”. It alerted before “the risk of an exercise of the democracy that transforms into dictatorship of the relativismo, proposing incompatible anthropological models with the nature and the dignity of the man”.

Indicators without changes     The economists consulted by the PRESS agreed in which the economic indicators like the international GIP, inflation and reserves, among others, will stay in the levels foretold by the Central bank of Nicaragua (BCN). “For the next year surely yes there will be changes, since the new Government has in the 2007 all conditions to assure an economic growth over the five percent facing the 2008”, he pointed the economist Alexander Arauz.

Most of nicas, at the moment, they do not know the economic plan that will materialize the new Government in next the five years. Although as of today probably all will hope, of entrance, to see substantial changes in the social area, to as the elect President of Nicaragua promised to it in the electoral campaign, the sandinista Daniel Ortega, who today assumes the Executive authority.

Nevertheless, in opinion of experts in fiscal and economic subjects, so that the previous thing happens, Ortega will have to face several challenges. An advantage to its favor is that it receives the country in favorable macroeconomic conditions.

One of those challenges is the tax burden. That is to say, the percentage of the taxes with respect to Producto Interno Bruto (PIB), the value of the production national, that according to official data was of the 17 percent in the 2006, equivalent in absolute numbers to more than 15.494 million of córdobas.

To criterion of the fiscal specialist, Julio Francisco Báez, Ortega will have to give a qualitative jump. “ How? Good increasing the collection of taxes with quality in the 2007”, he indicated.

Nicaragua could collect around 18.291 million of córdobas in tributary income during the 2007, that is to say, the equivalent one to the 17,4 percent of the GIP.

“To obtain it the new then Government it will have to make a new process that attenuates the fiscal inequidades, that means that it will have to review the tax burden, of way so that in the end they pay plus which they gain more and they pay except which they gain less”, explained.

THE REFORMATION AND BUDGET

“On the other hand, it will have to consider that to increase the collection it will have to rationalize and to reorient the cost, that in the end is the destiny of the tributary thing, so that the debits also will have to be of quality, without forgetting the combat to the poverty and the investment”, added.

In that sense, Báez it reasoned that Ortega will have three things that to do: to fortify the human resources of the tributary administrations, to be able to collect well; to carry out a revision in the matter of exonerations; and to make studies diagnoses, from first day of government, that says (fiscally) how the country is received stops of that way to guess right in the decisions facing the improvement of the system”, detailed.

After that, according to Báez, the Government will have to start up a fiscal reform with at least two characteristics: progressive integral and.

First it means that it will have to take at least into account to the municipalities and the social security.

“In the social security, for example, comes pressure from organisms like the International Monetary Fund (the IMF), because it is spoken of an increase in the quotations, more weeks to quote, among other things, and that could strike the population in general, then the global fiscal reform of the nation will necessarily have to take it in account, and the government of Ortega will have to be wise in that”, emphasized.

The specialist in fiscal subjects, René Vallecillo, observed that to fulfill the programs of social development, Ortega will have to make budgetary and tributary a reconstruction, settling down a more equitable tax system.

“For the budgetary area the great challenge, in as much, is how to redistribute the budget to direct it to the national priorities, mainly making emphasis to a social cost with quality”, it referred.

“That implies a cost that will not focus in the bureaucracy but in the benefit of the services and the well-being of the population”, it argued.

From beginnings of 2006 Nicaragua it confronts electrical blackouts that were become serious in last August, when the power rationing reached of four to twelve hours daily.

The official statistics, on the other hand, indicate that the 47 percent of the rural population does not have access to the service of potable water, whereas the 53 percent does not have electrical energy.

The rate of mortality derived from the maternity is of 150 by each 100.000 births of alive children, whereas the 27 percent of the childhood undergoes undernourishment, and in 58 of the 153 local municipalities there are problems of serious undernourishment and they carry far.

In education one calculates that a total of 800.000 children remains outside the scholastic classrooms.

According to official numbers, the rate of unemployment to November of the 2005 was of the 5,6 percent. Even expert in the subject they notice that there are at least 600 thousand Nicaraguan unemployed ones.

According to Minister of Property and salient Public Credit, Mario Flores, the international cooperation will stay with flows of 400 to 450 million dollars to the year until the 2009, which will partly help to improve the described indicators.

Despite the economist, Orlando Núñez, designated to execute the Program Hunger Zero and Fight against the Poverty, it declared in recent days that the government of Ortega will count on the cooperation of the President of Venezuela, Hugo Chavez, to fight against the power crisis, the deficit of houses and the problems of health.

Núñez expressed that, as resulting from a high percentage in the lack of execution of programs during the government of Bolaños, are resources in amount that did not need, to invest in the fight against the poverty that affects the 46,2 percent of the total population of country. While the extreme poverty is of the 14,9 percent.

DEBT AND COMMERCE

Although the economist and specialist in macroeconomic subjects, Néstor Avendaño, on the matter yes glimpsed challenges.

To criterion of the economist, Ortega, aside from one reforms public prosecutor, will have to reconstruct the internal national debt, mainly the bound one to the confiscaciones of the Eighties and the banking bankruptcies arisen in the Nineties and principles from the 2000.

“That will allow to release resources that could be reasignar to reduce the poverty, that is one of its great promises; another great challenge is the one to correctly assign the released resources of the payment of the external debt for the sake of diminishing to the poor men”, emphasized.

In relation to the monetary scope, another parallel challenge to the public prosecutor and the one of debt, Avendaño reiterated that the challenge number one, of the present administration, is “to reconstruct” the Central bank of Nicaragua (BCN).

“I talk about to rescue the technical quality of the bank and to make it more transparency, and that more credible must take place as rapidly as possible”, wrote down.

To that it added another one: the diversification of the exports and the markets. “The new Government will have to develop plus the Free Trade Agreement that Central America and Dominican Republic signed with the United States (Dr-Cafta), to attract more direct foreign investment (IED) the country and at the same time to think about other markets like Venezuela”, it referred.

“For example in the diversification the oil agreements with that nation will play an important role, and the bank of promotion to the production that is challenges that we will see if it manages to materialize the Government”, it declared.

Fact that the economist and jurist Alexander Arauz, puts in doubt, since to its criterion key organizations as the Ministry of Public Works and the Economy, Industry and Comercio (MIFIC) do not count on technical authorities in foreign trade.

“And that is one of the great weaknesses of the incoming government: the lack of technical personnel, on the other hand to foment the production is necessary to orient policies to the small ones and medium companies and of that little is saying”, reasoned.

In relation to the fiscal deficit, Avendaño indicated that this one will be unquestionably a subject of agenda between Ortega and the International Monetary Fund (the IMF) and another great challenge.

“Because Ortega will take the surprise of which she will have to reduce it and she will have pressure for that, since the previous deficit to donations in the last stayed five years between the 5 and 6,2 percent, that is that did not lower, and that is in the end the deficit that takes into account the Bottom”, it mentioned.

Aside from that, Avendaño assured that to maintain the reserves internments over the 900 million dollars it will be another “great work” of the Government who today assumes the reins of the country.

“For that it will have to deliver an attack exporting, since it does not agree to him to become indebted itself more, to since the Government made previous (the projection) then in the end a debt is paid”, clarified.

The economist Adolph Acevedo, nevertheless, was more optimistic. Acevedo valued that Ortega, with the aid of Venezuela, will not have difficulties to develop the programs of social nature, between these the reduction of the poverty that reigns at national level.

“Inclusively it will have margins to do it, for example there are resources that have not been disbursed, and not knows the magnitude of the cooperation that could receive”, it summarized.

“In addition to that it can be that Venezuela supports buying part of the internal debt and that would release more resources for Ortega, that is to say, what margins (to make the things) are had”, emphasized.